By Redaccion
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With the 2024 election season in full swing, early voting records are being shattered across the country, and Republicans are playing a significant role in driving this surge.
Encouraged by former President Donald Trump, many GOP voters are returning to the early voting methods that had been a staple for the party prior to 2020. So far, more than 17 million ballots have been cast nationwide, with notable turnout in key swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
This surge is a shift from the 2020 election cycle when many Republicans, following Trump’s lead, avoided early and mail-in voting, opting instead to cast their ballots on Election Day. Trump had promoted baseless claims of widespread fraud in early voting, which led many in the GOP to distrust the process. However, the party is now making a concerted effort to change that narrative, with Trump himself publicly advocating for early voting.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump stated during a recent podcast appearance with conservative commentator Dan Bongino. This encouragement comes despite Bongino’s history of spreading misinformation about the 2020 election.
Early Voting Boosts Republican Turnout in Swing States
Republicans appear to be heeding the call. In states like North Carolina and Nevada, the GOP is narrowing what had been significant early voting leads for Democrats in recent years. According to data from the Associated Press, in North Carolina, Democrats held a more than 30-point lead in early voting in 2022. This year, Republicans trail by just two points, a sharp improvement for the party.
Nevada, traditionally a Democratic stronghold in early voting, has also seen a shift. As of this week, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats have cast early ballots. These developments signal that the Republican base may be more engaged this election cycle compared to recent ones, where early voting was dominated by Democrats.
However, the data should be interpreted with caution. Early voting figures only indicate party registration, not actual votes. Many factors, including potential late-breaking trends or voter mobilization efforts, could still influence the final outcome once all ballots are counted, including those cast on Election Day.
Return to Pre-2020 Trends?
The 2020 election saw a massive surge in early Democratic voting, largely driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the pandemic no longer an immediate concern, some of that voting behavior has shifted back toward pre-pandemic norms. While Republicans are making significant gains in early voting, experts remain cautious about what this may mean for the final results.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who tracks early voting, noted that the current shift is significant but urged caution in reading too much into the data. “We don’t know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans,” McDonald said.
In fact, in many states, Democrats are still leading in overall early vote totals, although the gap is smaller than in previous years. “The Democrats are still banking more early votes,” McDonald added, “but it’s less of a disadvantage for Republicans this time.”
Record Turnout Across Multiple States
Regardless of the party breakdown, one thing is clear: early voting is breaking records. Both North Carolina and Georgia reported record turnout on their first days of early in-person voting, even as Hurricane Helene impacted parts of the region. The trend extends beyond swing states; South Carolina, typically not a battleground, also reported a record number of early voters on the first day of early voting.
Despite the GOP’s progress, mail-in voting remains an area where Democrats hold a strong advantage. In Pennsylvania, a key swing state with no in-person early voting, Democrats have returned 350,000 more mail ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. While Republicans are making up ground with in-person early voting in most battlegrounds, their reliance on Election Day turnout still presents a potential challenge.
Years of distrust sown by conspiracy theories surrounding mail voting have made it difficult for Republicans to match Democrats’ success in that area. At a recent rally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a high-profile Trump supporter, urged voters to cast their ballots early. Some in the crowd responded with skepticism, even shouting, “Why?”
Early Voting Parity Benefits Both Parties
Despite lingering concerns among some conservatives, many analysts believe the return to parity in early voting is ultimately beneficial for both parties. John Couvillon, a Republican pollster, likened the GOP’s current position to “being down three touchdowns at halftime and thinking you can score four in the second half.” The significant improvement in early voting turnout, he argued, puts the party in a much stronger position heading into Election Day.
Democrats, meanwhile, remain confident in their early voting numbers. Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, acknowledged that Republicans were expected to close the gap in early voting but said he’s not concerned about the overall impact. “I’m impressed the Democratic numbers are as strong as they are,” Bonier said.
Both sides agree on one thing: the high early turnout reflects an energized electorate. “If either side thought the other would stay home this election, that’s obviously not the case,” Bonier added.
As the 2024 election approaches, early voting trends suggest a competitive race. While Republicans have made notable gains, Democrats continue to hold significant advantages in key areas, particularly with mail-in voting. With just weeks to go before Election Day, both parties are likely to intensify efforts to mobilize their bases and ensure strong turnout across the board.
